Sunday, December 4, 2016

GOP Nomination

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Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz has been on a mission to win the presidency and he has done everything in his power to give him the edge, but it all comes down to tonight.

A year ago, people knew Ted was going to run for president and very few people thought he would rise to the top of the 17-candidate pack. But he did.

Ted Cruz is not only second in delegates, but he also has the most effective “ground game” in the election. His team is peeling off delegates in each state possible and winning elections without votes because he is playing the game right.

The Texas senator has done everything he can to stop Trump. Teaming up with Rubio in the debates, teaming up with Kasich ahead of today’s primary, and even naming Carly Fiorina as a running mate.

He has done all he can, but it looks like it is not enough.

Looking at the average of all the polls, Trump is up 10.7% over Cruz going into today’s battle. The polls range from Trump up two points to over 17. But they all show him ahead.

The Carly Fiorina pick is looking like it didn’t have much effect on the voters and the Kasich partnership is hanging on by a thread.

Cruz has done everything he could possibly do to stop Trump and win the nomination, but is it enough?

Trump numbers are going up and even his national numbers have him beating Hillary Clinton now.

Tonight will be big for the Cruz campaign. Without a win tonight there is no real way to stop Trump from getting the 1,237 delegates needed before the GOP convention.

Will he win and stop Trump?

Will he and John Kasich even stay in if Trump wins?

There are going to be a lot of questions answered tonight and in the coming days, but even if Ted loses tonight and eventually doesn’t get the nomination, there isn’t a person in the Republican Party that doesn’t think Cruz will be back bigger, stronger and a better candidate in 2020.

What do you think? Will Ted Cruz win tonight in Indiana and keep his campaign going?

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Trump

Since taking the lead in July of 2015, Donald J. Trump has dominated the national polls for all but two days of the nomination season.

While Ted Cruz continually spoke of Trump’s “ceiling” of support, Trump continued to climb past each barrier.

Following a massive showing in Pennsylvania last week, the billionaire’s numbers have hit an all-time high, reaching 44% in the Real Clear Politics national average.

The average combines the five most recent polls.

The latest poll by Investor’s Business Daily puts Trump a full 19 points ahead of Cruz with 48% support.

Trump has gained a full five points since April 13th, while Texas Senator Ted Cruz has lost nearly three points.

For today’s contest in Indiana, frontrunner Trump holds a commanding 17% lead over Ted Cruz. The latest poll by Gravis Marketing puts Trump 44%, Cruz at 27% and Kasich at 9%.

Based upon previous performance, Gravis’ polls under rate Trump and over sample Kasich supporters. Expect Trump to win Indiana by 45% to 46%.

Comment below.

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Carly

Ted Cruz took a book out of the Donald Trump playbook and had a major news announcement on the day after Trump won 105 out of 111 delegates on Tuesday.

Cruz announced that former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina as his new running mate.

A lot of people are asking why is he picking a running mate the day after he was mathematically eliminated from being able to get enough delegates before the convention.

It is a good question, but what does Ted have to lose? Nothing. His only chance to stop Trump is to pull away enough votes in California and Indiana to keep Trump from gaining the needed 1237 delegates.

If Cruz can do that, then he has a chance at becoming the nominee with the backing of the Republican establishment.

On the other hand it is a long shot. Trump proved his staying power on Tuesday and Cruz even slipped to 3rd place in all but one of the contests. Cruz has been losing ground and he went with the last trick up his sleeve.

Now that he has named Carly, there are not going to be any more surprises. He has nothing left to reveal. This may help him stop Trump, possibly, but it will hurt him and the Republicans chances in the fall.

The move was a desperate one that might pay off and stop Trump, but what is next? If he does become the nominee with Carly, he will lose out on the news cycle when Hillary announces her VP.

He played his cards too early, but what choice did he have? Donald has done all but lock up the nomination. He has eliminated 16 other GOP candidates from having a chance to get enough delegates and has received more votes to this point than Romney did in all of 2012.

Trump is going to be tough to beat, but this move might be the only thing he could have done at this point.

Carly is not only a woman, which shows diversity and can play against Hillary, but she is a businessperson. Carly is the first ever woman CEO of a top 20 business and is one tough cookie.

She is a good pick. Carly is a much better pick than a Rubio or Bush. She will be able to help out California, but is it too much too late?

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GOP Nomination

Tuesday night Donald Trump swept 5 primaries, taking all of them in convincing fashion. The big win is enough to really project Trump towards the 1,237 delegates he needs to have by the GOP convention in order to secure the GOP nomination.

The clean sweep by Trump also pushes Ted Cruz’s chances of getting enough delegates to win out the window. There is zero chance now that Ted Cruz can get to 1,237. Even if Ted wins every single delegate from here on out, he will still not have enough.

The reality of the situation is that Donald Trump will lock up the nomination and unless something drastic happens, it will be California that gives him the last few delegates needed to reach the magic number.

Not only did Donald win all of the primaries last night, John Kasich had the second best night. Kasich won 5 delegates to Ted’s 1, and came in second place in four of the five states.

What does this all mean? Well, it looks as if Donald may win the nomination outright, but if there is a contested convention, Kasich may be the darling of the establishment and not Cruz. Ironically, the person 4th in delegates might have the best chance to beat Donald at the convention. Not Cruz.

Looking at the delegate count, here is where we are this morning.

Donald Trump – 949
Ted Cruz – 544
Marco Rubio – 171
John Kasich – 153

Trump really pulled ahead last night gaining 105 of the 111 available delegates.

This is turning into a two-person race. Hillary and Trump. Hillary won four of her five states and is starting to really pull away from Bernie.

On the right, despite the billions of dollars spent against Trump and the establishment’s campaign to stop him, the Trump train keeps on moving.

This has been an amazing political season, with so many twists and turns and back room meetings, we are sure that there are some surprises left.

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