Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Iowa Caucus

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Trump

The inside word yesterday was that presidential frontrunner, Donald Trump, was “depressed” after the Iowa Caucus results.

His tweets and comments to the media bolster what we’ve heard, but the latest news coming from Politico has supporters scratching their heads.

As expected, Trump is shrugging off the advice of his staff and refusing to shake up his campaign.

The billionaire’s loss in Iowa was clearly due to a lack of a ground game, yet the candidate has only one paid staffer in New Hampshire and stubbornly refuses to put in work in the state, placing false confidence in the polls that are proven to be wildly inaccurate.

To make matters worse, Trump is spending this week in campaign stops outside of New Hampshire.

While the national rallies make for great photo opportunities, Trump fails at retail politics, which is the heart of the game.

The real estate mogul also refuses to invest in data operations, instead relying on simplistic registration sites like EventBrite. Data in the political world is how a campaign rapidly increases its efficiency.

From a marketing perspective, if Trump were selling delicious, thick-cut bacon, he would be wasting his money and time trying to get vegetarians, jews, muslims and pork haters to buy his product.

Without basic voter data, Trump is wandering around in the forest looking for truffles without a pig.

The word from Trump World is that the candidate has been strongly advised to get his act together, but instead “refuses to listen to anyone” according to a confidential source.

Even if Trump were to listen to his staff, the candidate is surrounded by second stringers who weren’t picked up by the other candidates. This is not necessarily a bad thing as right-of-center consultants and politicos are, for the most part, stuck in a dated method of campaigning and mainly looking to line their own pockets.

Trump’s lack of spending while maintaining a high impact is admirable, but campaign consultants are quick to lash out and hurt the candidate . . . simply because they are not able to make any money off the mogul’s popularity.

Trump’s lack of effort in New Hampshire is troubling for supporters as it shows either an ignorance of politics or a desire to lose.

Given Trump’s acumen in business, it’s hard to fathom that the candidate could be this bad at organizing . . . if you only look at his successes.

While Donald has excelled at real estate ventures, the guy is an absolute failure in retail.

Readers may recall “Trump Natural Spring Water.”

Okay, maybe not.

How about his cologne, “Empire.”

No?

Okay, how about the “Donald J. Trump Collection” of suits and ties?

Maybe, not.

Trump has been successful with his books, which naturally result from his relentless earned media appearances.

As for true retail capability, Trump sucks at it.

The candidate’s lack of success in retail merchandising is carrying over to his campaign. Just like product owners have to identify buyers, candidates have to identify voters.

While a large personality running for office can attract a crowd, to beat the margin of victory, a campaign has to have snipers in the trees, scouting out the voters that linger on the field.

Trump is either showing complete arrogance, or he simply doesn’t want to win.

Comment below.

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Iowa Rant

Presidential frontrunner Donald Trump wants a mulligan in Iowa. Here’s his latest:

The real estate mogul is referring to Ted Cruz’s tactics to get voters in Iowa. Cruz was guilty of two things: sending out “voting violation” mailers that nearly cross the line of illegality and sending out his organizers on Caucus night to say that Ben Carson had dropped out.

Cruz has apologized to Carson for the underhanded tactic.

That’s not good enough for Trump who feels Cruz won Iowa based upon the “dirty tricks.”

The mogul’s argument does not hold water as Carson outperformed polling expectations by a point. While Cruz and Rubio also outperformed expectations, few points were gained by Cruz.

Both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio had a significant ground game in Iowa that most likely lifted results.

Donald Trump on the other hand, with his inexperienced campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, have a hard time organizing their way out of a wet paper bag.

Trump’s ground game couldn’t fill an overgrown nature trail in the Hawkeye State.

With that said, Trump’s tactic of bringing attention to the Texas senator’s dirty campaign is effective.

Ted Cruz should not have allowed the “voting violation” fliers to hit mailboxes and the Carson “drop out” scheme was ugly and unnecessary.

Ted Cruz is proving to be a candidate who will do anything to win, which is unfortunate and unnecessary, but Trump is bringing attention to it to lower trust in the candidate.

Tomorrow’s poll will tell the story if Trump’s negative branding of Cruz will make an impact.

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Cruz

With the evangelical track record of Iowa GOP winner, today’s caucus is a must win for presidential contender Ted Cruz.

Previous Iowa winners squeaked by for the win despite no significant national support. Both Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum took the wins in 2008 and 2012, respectively.

Cruz, who has pandered to the evangelical base, sent an email to a rented list on Saturday, addressing it to his “trusted few.”

In the email that was paid for by the Cruz for President campaign and signed by Ted Cruz himself (assuming he read it), pleaded:

The latest polling shows that Donald’s attacks against me are swaying voters, and unless we can hit this goal and give our volunteers the resources they need — we may not turn out enough voters for the Iowa Caucus.

The candidate went on in his solicitation for funds to say, “I could be in serious trouble.”

The fundraising technique is considered a “wolf at the door letter” by fundraising experts.

A “wolf” letter is a last ditch, desperate effort to raise money – and should only be used once, and only when absolutely necessary as it puts an organization or candidate in a weak position.

While some donors are instigated to give to such a letter, many more are turned off by the appeal as they feel it’s disingenuous, or they believe the letter and consider the candidate toast.

The email, released over the weekend, is similar to the desperate letters sent out to Iowa voters last week.

The letters, inscribed with “Voting Violation” at the top were scare tactics that inappropriately disclosed the voting history and “score” of neighbors while threatening to do the same to the recipient of the letter.

The underhanded letter that bumps at the edge of legality may backfire for Cruz as a higher turnout is unlikely to work in favor of the Canadian-born candidate.

Cruz’s campaign has been notorious for a complete lack of respect for privacy as the data-heavy organization has relied on compiling voter profiles from Facebook profiles to create correlations between online behavior and voting behavior.

Given the “wolf” letter, desperate “voting violation” letter and use of private data, Ted Cruz’s campaign has turned from an anti-establishment movement to a “anything-to-win” campaign of desperation.

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Trump

I’m suffering from Trump Fatigue. The disease hasn’t progressed to the point that I need to see my doctor, but as a precaution, I’m limiting the amount of time I watch or listen to the news. Say what you will, Mr. Trump has brilliantly manipulated the news cycle.

The Donald is larger than life: big, bold, brash. At the beginning, when he burst upon the scene, I was like, “Alright, finally a candidate who speaks plainly.” I’m of the opinion he moved the presidential discourse in a very healthy direction: build a wall, our leaders are stupid people, I’ll make America great again. But I’m tired of the platitudes. It’s like I’ve been drinking Coke Zero for a month and have a need for the real thing.

What are Mr. Trump’s core values? He says he can work with anyone, he’s the master of the deal, but where does he draw the line? Actually, who is he? Strip away veneer and what does he really believe? Listening to his answers I’m not sure, and becoming more confused each time I hear him speak.

First, he’s pro choice, very pro choice. Now he’s pro life, but is he very pro life. I understand people change their position, but why? Did he do so to become more palatable to Evangelicals? I wish I knew.

As an example, consider this dialogue with Scott Pelly on the topic of healthcare for the underprivileged.

“Donald Trump: Obamacare’s going to be repealed and replaced. Obamacare is a disaster if you look at what’s going on with premiums where they’re up 40, 50, 55 percent.

Scott Pelley: How do you fix it?

Donald Trump: There’s many different ways, by the way. Everybody’s got to be covered. This is an un-Republican thing for me to say because a lot of times they say, “No, no, the lower 25 percent that can’t afford private. But–

Scott Pelley: Universal health care.

Donald Trump: I am going to take care of everybody. I don’t care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now.

Scott Pelley: The uninsured person is going to be taken care of. How? How?

Donald Trump: They’re going to be taken care of. I would make a deal with existing hospitals to take care of people.”

There we go again, he “would make a deal”! In all fairness to Mr. Trump, later he goes on to say that the government would pay for the care. As a taxpayer, is that really what I want to hear? What is his presidential candidacy, the game show Let’s Make a Deal?

Instead of Let’s Make a Deal, maybe we should play game show To Tell the Truth and ask, “will the real Donald Trump to please stand up.”

I am curious as to the outcome of the Iowa Caucus. Are empty phrases and brashness enough to sway the outcome in his favor, or are a majority of Iowan’s, like me, looking for some substance?

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