Monday, October 24, 2016


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Over and over Ted Cruz has said that he is the only one who can win the nomination and beat Hillary in the general election.

Kasich has been saying the same thing. He is the only one who can beat Hillary in the fall.

Now, they are both wrong.

For the first time this entire election season, a well-respected poll has come out that shows Hillary and Trump in a dead heat.

In a head to head matchup, a recent poll by George Washington University, with the help of the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, shows that Trump is within the statistical margin of victory.

He has come a long way. In similar polls he has been down as many as 18 points to Hillary, but now he is tied.

This is a big day for Donald Trump. If he can win big today and take most of the delegates then there is no hope for Ted Cruz to be able to get enough delegates before the election. Ted’s only hope, and Kasich’s too for that matter, is to head to the convention and hope that Donald doesn’t reach the 1,237 delegates needed to win.

The poll also showed that a majority of Americans, 82%, is engaged in this presidential race. They are following very or somewhat closely.

This, coupled with the recent news that Donald Trump has more votes than Romney did at this point in 2012, makes it hard to think that he won’t get the nomination at this point.

With a big win today, and the national polls are showing that people are warming to his message, he could be set to lock up the nomination earlier than anyone expected.

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Beat Hillary

If you believe the polls, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump will lose to Hillary Clinton in the general election.

Polls by NBC, ABC, CNN, Fox News, and Rasmussen all have Hillary winning in the general by five to 13 points.

Only a poll conducted in February by USA Today shows Trump with a slim lead of two points over the former First Lady.

Again . . . if you believe the polls.

In this unusual election cycle, voter turnout for the GOP is 60% higher than in 2008 and a whopping 165% higher than 2004.

Turnout by Republicans has not been higher than Democrat turnout in a presidential year for a non-incumbent since 2000. And then, turnout was only 10.5% in the primary.

Voter turnout is a measurement of enthusiasm for the candidates. In 2008, Barack Obama was able to get 19.5% of Democrats to vote in the primary. If you recall, enthusiasm was through the roof for Obama.

Another comparison to offer was 2008 polling results. In March of 2008, Obama was leading John McCain by 4%. Obama won the election by 7%.

McCain, an establishment candidate that failed to energize American voters was competing against the wunderkind politician in Barack Obama.

Today, in 2016, we have the opposite scenario. Trump, a deeply polarizing figure will be competing against an establishment candidate who is as equally polarizing for those right-of-center voters.

While both Democrats and Republicans want to oust any candidate tied to the Establishment – which is a plus for Donald Trump – the Democratic Party still has the minority base in its left pocket.

For someone on “the right” it is unimaginable that America would be THAT dumb to elect Hillary Clinton. However, the possibility of another “President Clinton” is very real in the event Hillary succeeds in mobilizing the minority voting base . . . which is very likely.

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Consultants surrounding Ted Cruz’s campaign are bouncing with joy with the latest polls. Presidential frontrunner Donald Trump has taken his biggest dive in the national polls to date.

Since February 3rd, a day after the Iowa Caucus, Trump has taken a cliff dive from 35.8% to 29.5%.

The drop is attributed, not to his second-place finish in Iowa, but how he handled the loss.

The Cruz camp should hold their enthusiasm as they face a serious threat from above and below.

Since Iowa, even with his disastrous debate performance, Marco “The Robot” Rubio has shot up from 10% support to nearly 18%. The Florida Senator is just three points from taking Cruz . . . something he has not done since the beginning of December.

Thankfully for Trump, polls are a fickle thing.

If the real estate mogul holds his lead in New Hampshire today, the recent poll dive will shoot back up to a commanding 37% lead or more.

The final poll in New Hampshire has Trump up by 16 points while Cruz has been pushed to a tight fourth place finish.

While Trump still refuses to put together a credible ground game, he has increased his media presence by putting his sons on the air . . . and they’ve done an impressive job for the candidate.

Here’s Eric Trump and Donald Jr. on Fox and Friends on Monday:

The boys also jumped in for a hunt in Iowa and did an impressive job of showing a true part of their lifestyle. Unlike other politicians who dress up like Elmer Fudd to pose for the camera, Eric and Donald Jr. gunned down a few pheasants to take home to the Trump dinner table. The NRA would be proud.


A photo posted by David Weigel (@daveweigel) on

But the efforts of Donald and his family will be in vain if he’s unable to take New Hampshire with the commanding lead he holds in the polls.

If the candidate stumbles as he did in Iowa, it may very well be “game over” for the billionaire.



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